GTA Real Estate Market: Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025

A comparison of the first quarter of 2026 to the same period in 2025 shows a market that remains in transition, with activity moderating, pricing adjusting, and buyers continuing to exercise patience. While the market has not yet fully rebounded, the data suggests we are moving toward a more stable and balanced environment compared to the volatility of recent years.

Sales activity declined modestly in the first quarter, with 4,344 properties sold in Q1 2026, compared to 4,663 in Q1 2025. This decrease reflects continued affordability pressures and cautious buyer behaviour, particularly early in the year when interest rates and economic uncertainty remained key considerations.

Interestingly, supply also declined. New listings fell to 12,382 in Q1 2026, down from 14,460 in Q1 2025. This reduction in new listings suggests that some sellers are choosing to wait for stronger market conditions, which could help prevent inventory from building too quickly and may support market stability as the year progresses.

Pricing softened compared to the previous year. The average sale price in Q1 2026 was approximately $1.30M, down from $1.41M in Q1 2025, while the average asking price declined slightly to $1.63M from $1.68M. These changes indicate continued price sensitivity among buyers and the importance of accurate pricing strategies for sellers.

Homes also took longer to sell. The average days on market increased to 31 days, compared to 25 days in Q1 2025, pointing to a more deliberate pace of decision-making among buyers. As with all MLS-based statistics, this figure should be interpreted with caution, as listings that are terminated and relisted reset the days on market clock, meaning the true time to sell is often longer than reported.

Negotiation dynamics shifted as well. The average ask-to-sell ratio declined to 98.9% in Q1 2026, compared to 100.7% in Q1 2025, indicating fewer bidding scenarios and more room for negotiation. Buyers maintained greater leverage, particularly on properties that were not priced appropriately for current market conditions.

Overall, the first quarter of 2026 reflects a market that is still adjusting but showing signs of stabilization. With both sales and new listings down, pricing adjusting, and negotiation conditions normalizing, the market appears to be moving toward a more balanced environment—though progress will likely remain gradual and vary by neighbourhood and property type as the year unfolds.